The Impact of Russia’s War in Ukraine on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Armenia

Abstract

Russia’s war in Ukraine had a dramatic impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh confict, Armenia’s security, and Russia’s role in the South Caucasus. The impact of the war in Ukraine on Armenia is complex, multi-layered, and controversial, and deserves to be codifed in line with its various aspects and distinct periods:

• Azerbaijan’s military ofensives and blockade, leading to ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and elimination of the de facto state;
• Azerbaijan’s military ofensives, territorial claims and creeping annexation in relation to Armenia;
• Russia’s increasing alignment with Azerbaijan and hybrid war against Armenia;
• Armenia’s strained relationship with Russia and dysfunctional membership of the CSTO;
• Deployment of the EU’s mission in Armenia as a soft deterrent for Armenia’s border security;
• Dynamics of Armenia-Ukraine relations;
• Dilemmas for Armenia’s foreign and security policies: Diversifcation, hedging or pivoting?

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