Conflicts Fueling Geopolitical Dynamics in 2024

Abstract

2024 has gotten off to a bad start, with several destabilizing fires fueling the specter of a widespread conflict, and an arc of crisis stretching from the Mediterranean to the Caucasus. The prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine, or at least a negotiated outcome unfavorable to the West, should prompt reflection on the disparity between reality and the narratives presented in many media organizations.

Western disengagement in Syria, the shift of the war in Ukraine, the recent events in Gaza, and the shockwave caused by ethnic cleansing in Artsakh are not isolated events, despite each following its own logic. They are the logical consequence of a security vacuum that coincides with the disengagement of the West in general, and the United States in particular, from these primary hotbeds of regional tension.

While this security vacuum increases instability, it also benefits regional powers, which until now had been relegated to a secondary role. In this context, each actor plays its own part. Without a conflict-regulation mechanism, or a Leviathan, the Hobbesian logic reemerges. Military alliances, increasingly costly or ineffective as seen with the CSTO, give way to partnerships. These partnerships are inherently more flexible, opportunistic, and operate within a bilateral framework with shifting boundaries.

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