A Geopolitical Assessment of the Earthquake

Abstract 

More than 34,000 people have been killed after a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6, 2023. A mere nine hours later, a strong 7.7 magnitude aftershock occurred causing even more damage. According to figures published by the World Health Organization in its provisional report, the dead are mainly of Turkish nationality, to a lesser extent Syrian. Tens of thousands have been injured, millions are displaced. In the days, and weeks to come, this macabre number will increase further.

The toll of this earthquake, unprecedented in severity since that of the 1138 earthquake which devastated the city of Aleppo, is threefold. The devastation is firstly human, given the number of victims unevenly rescued; material (infrastructure and tens of thousands of buildings destroyed); political (Erdogan, who is struggling to remain in power and Assad, who will be judged by his ability to meet the challenge of rescue and reconstruction with the means at his government’s disposal) and finally diplomatic.

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